Gold Outlook For 2015

Ronald Stoeferle: Gold Outlook For 2015

What will gold do in 2015 is a question that is top of mind of many gold investors, particularly during this period of the year. We reached out to gold analyst Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Managing Partner and fund manager at Incrementum AG in Liechtenstein, author of the In Gold We Trust reports, to get his taken on the outlook for gold for 2015. His expectations for 2015 are summarized by the 10 charts in this article.

This year was cleary a mixed bag for the precious metals. On the one hand, gold stabilized and confirmed its trading range which was formed after last year’s price crash. Another positive fact is the relative strength of the price of gold in most major currencies non-U.S. Dollar, as evidenced by comparing the first two charts below (the first chart, Euro gold, looks relatively more solid than Dollar gold). On the other hand, silver and the miners went lower and broke below their trading range. That is clearly disinflationary, and disfinlation has been the main message that the precious metals complex has signaled in the past year. That is also the baseline for gold’s outlook for 2015.

Gold Outlook For 2015

Gold Outlook For 2015-1

The constant outperformance of the U.S. stock market was the main theme in financial media. Similarly, gold’s weakness has been emphasized over and over again in 2014. That has undoubtedly created the perception that stocks have been a much better investment class than gold. Although that conclusion sounds intuitive to some, it is not supported by the facts as evidenced by the following chart.

The next chart compares gold with the stock market performance in 7 major regions or countries in 2014. It shows that only the U.S. and Japanese stock market outperformed gold in 2014. As an investment asset, holding gold in 2014 was not a bad idea at all.

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Viewers Report Getting Goosebumps After Seeing Five Commercial Jets Execute ‘Very Unusual’ Maneuvers

A promotional video created by Airbus showcases five of their newest commercial jets take to the skies to execute a stunning formation flight — and video of the “very unusual” event has taken the Internet by storm.

The “family flight” was performed in September and featured five A350 XWBs perform a series of maneuvers in-flight. The large jets went into diamond, arrow and echelon formation, as well as performing a low pass.

Footage of the incredibly rare flight performance has received more than 1 million views on YouTube.

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AZ: Martha McSally Win Gives GOP Majority Not Seen Since Hoover Admin

Republican Martha McSally beat Democratic incumbent Rep. Ron Barber (D-AZ) on Wednesday after an election recount confirmed the GOP’er had a 167 vote edge over Barber.

According to the AP, the GOP will now have the largest majority ever, with 247 seats, which has not been seen since the 1929-31 term, when Republicans held 270 seats during President Herbert Hoover’s administration.

The McSally-Barber race was declared 43 days after the November 4 election, and the recount was triggered because the margin between the two candidates after December 1 certification and canvass was less than 200 votes.

According to Arizona Public Media, McSally has already gone through congressional freshman orientation sessions and met with Republican Party leaders. This is McSally’s second freshman orientation. The retired Air Force colonel and fighter pilot, APM reports, went through the orientation two years ago when the outcome of her 2012 race against Barber was still undetermined. She lost to Barber by a 2,400 vote margin.

McSally was the first woman to serve as a combat pilot, as well as the first woman to command a fighter unit, the 354th Fighter Squadron of A-10s at Tucson’s Davis-Monthan Air Force Base.

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‘That Was Amazing’: Two Women Traveling in Taxi Happen to See the ‘Sight of a Lifetime’

Passengers traveling through Canada’s Northwest Territories happened to see the “sight of a lifetime” while taking a tax cab this month.

In video uploaded online Dec. 14, a pack of three wolves could be seen attempting a bison takedown. As their cab approached the scene the wolves immediately scattered.

“Wow, those wolves, those buffalo, got saved by us, eh?” one of the women said in the video. ”That was amazing. I don’t know when we will ever see that again.”

“That was amazing. I don’t know when we will ever see that again.”

Share:

“I don’t think I’ve ever seen that,” another women said.

‘That was a sight of a lifetime,” the other echoed.

The women were traveling from Fort Providence to Yellowknife, a distance of about 200 miles. According to the CBC, it’s not uncommon to take a cab for the trip, which usually costs about $650.

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All Debts Will Eventually Be Extinguished

Commodity money, such as gold and silver, is real money. Real money is a medium of exchange that extinguishes debt and other financial obligations.

Credit money, such as bank notes, government notes, gold certificates, checks, and bills of exchange, is not real money. Credit money does not extinguish debt or other financial obligations. It merely discharges the debt or obligation by passing it to another person or entity.

Although checks, bank notes, government notes, and certificates, are used as mediums of exchange, they are not real money themselves. Only real money can extinguish debt. They are promises to pay money. Under today’s monetary system, the issuer has no intentions of keeping that promise. Therefore, under today’s monetary system only national bankruptcy via hyperinflation or repudiation can extinguish debts.

When a person buys groceries, he can pay with fullweight gold coins (assuming the gold standard) or with a check or bank note. If he pays with gold coins, no further obligation exists. The grocer has received something that is no one else’s obligation, gold coins. If the buyer pays with a check or bank notes, the buyer’s obligation to the grocer has been discharged. However, it has not been extinguished. The grocer has received a promise to transfer gold to the grocer. The obligation is not extinguished until the grocer presents the bank notes or check to the bank that issued them, and the bank converts the check or bank notes to gold coins.

Likewise, with debt, a borrower extinguishes the debt when he pays with gold coins. He has paid the lender with money that is no one else’s obligation. If he pays with bank notes or check, he has merely discharged the debt. It has not been extinguished. It has been transferred to the bank. The debt is not extinguished until the lender presents the check or bank notes to the issuing bank, and the bank converts them to gold coins.

If the buyer or borrower uses governmentally issued notes, like U.S. notes, or gold certificates, he has discharged his financial obligation to the grocer or debt to the lender. However, the financial obligation or debt has not been extinguished. It has been passed to the government. The obligation or debt is not extinguished until the government redeems its notes and certificates in gold, that is, commodity money.

In the United States between 1879 and 1933, gold certificates (first issued in 1882), bank notes, and government notes, which were called U.S. notes and nicknamed greenbacks, were redeemable in gold on demand. (U.S. notes were legal-tender; the other two were not.) If a debtor used one of these forms of credit money to pay his debt, he discharged his debt, but he did not extinguish it. If he paid with bank notes, the obligation was transferred to the issuing bank. If he paid with gold certificates or U.S. notes, he transferred the obligation to the U.S. government. The debt was not extinguished until the bank note, certificate, or greenback was converted to gold. (This conversion permanently retired the bank note and gold certificate. However, it did not permanently retire U.S. notes. The Secretary of the Treasury had a statutory obligation to reissue U.S. notes after they were redeemed.)

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Watch What Browns Fans Do to Visiting Bengals Player Whose Teasing Crossed Way Over the Line

The visiting Cincinnati Bengals crushed the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, 30-0.

The lopsided loss was particularly painful for Browns fans, who suffered through teasing from Bengals’ rookie Jeremy Hill.

After one touchdown run, Hill stood in front of the enemy crowd and mocked Cleveland Cavaliers superstar LeBron James’ well-known “chalk toss” he performs before basketball games:

But while Hill — who finished with 148 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns — may have dominated on the field, the hometown fans weren’t about to be pushed around.

When Hill unwisely ran from the field after another touchdown and jumped partially into the first-row seats — something usually reserved for home-team players — a couple of Browns fans roughly pushed Hill away, making contact with his face mask and shoulder pads.

Knocked back to the turf, Hill seemed surprised, holding up outstretched arms in response.

ESPN reported that Hill was running toward Bengals fans in the first row and were “outmuscled.” Hill had this to say regarding his ill-fated leap: “It was kind of funny,” Hill told ESPN. “I’ll learn from it next time.”

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Christian Printer Was Punished After Refusing to Print Gay Pride T-Shirts — and Now He’s Fighting Back

(H/T TheBlaze)

A Christian printer who was found guilty of discrimination by a civil rights commission and told that his employees would need to attend diversity training after he refused to print shirts for a gay pride parade is fighting back, appealing the ruling in Kentucky state court.

Blaine Adamson, owner of Hands on Originals, a Lexington-based T-shirt company, filed the appeal through his attorneys with the Alliance Defending Freedom, a conservative legal firm, arguing that the messages he was asked to print violated his deeply held religious beliefs.

The challenge comes after Greg Munson of the Lexington-Fayette Urban County Human Rights Commission announced in October that Hands on Originals discriminated against the Gay and Lesbian Services Organization of Lexington when it refused to print the shirts back in 2012.

The civil rights commission subsequently officially adopted this sentiment in November, finding that Adamson — who regularly does business with and employs gays and lesbians — violated the local non-discrimination ordinance, according to a Alliance Defending Freedom press release.

“No one should be forced by the government to endorse or promote ideas with which they disagree. Laws that do that are fundamentally unjust,” senior legal counsel Jim Campbell said in a statement. “We are appealing the commission’s decision because the First Amendment protects the freedom of every American to decline to speak on any issue without fear of punishment.”

In this case, Campbell said that Adamson wasn’t opposed to the individuals requesting the shirts, rather he disagreed with the message.

The Alliance Defending Freedom has also raised another related issue: if Christians like Adamsonare forced to print shirts that violate their religious beliefs, this would also mean that gay and lesbian-owned businesses will be forced to print messages from groups that they, too, disagree with — something the firm believes violates the First Amendment.

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Why Debt, Default, and Taxes Are Destructive In The Long Run

(H/T Gold Silver Worlds)

The official US National Debt is about $18,000,000,000,000, or 57 times the current market price of the US gold SUPPOSEDLY stored at Fort Knox, the NY Fed, and elsewhere. With so much paper in the system it is easy to see why the Fed publicly denigrates gold.

In the single year from Sept. 30, 2013 to Sept. 30, 2014, the US official national debt increased by over three times the value of all the gold that the US supposedly owns. The total debt and the increase in that debt is clearly “a problem.”

What about a comparison relevant to you and me?

The per capital national debt for all US citizens is approximately 2,600 hours of work based on the annual average wage. But since only about 100,000,000 Americans are working, that increases the work time to pay off the national debt to about four years.

Repeat: Every employee in the US would have to work about 4 years at the average hourly wage to pay the national debt. It gets worse. The unfunded liabilities of the US government are about 10 times larger (depending on who is counting) and that means every worker would have to labor for 40 years to pay the debt and unfunded liabilities.

debt per capita 1969 2014 economy

 

The above graph of official US national debt divided by population and divided by the average hourly wage shows:

  1. The national debt has been increasing faster than both population growth and hourly wages.
  2. The graph shows the number of hours of work, at the average wage, to pay off the national debt. It has accelerated higher since 9-11.
  3. The 45 year trend is clearly up and accelerating.

 

Observations

  1. The phrase about the inevitability of “death and taxes” should be updated to “debt, death and taxes,” and it will soon become “debt, default, and taxes.” Call it DDT, which is the name for a poison.
  2. National debt has increased exponentially since 1913 at 9.0% per year, since 1971 at 9.2% per year, and since October 1, 2008 at 10.1% per year.
  3. Debt is increasing much more rapidly than wages.
  4. “The Powers That Be” want exponentially increasing debt, otherwise world economies would be run differently.
  5. Clearly the debt will NEVER be paid in 2014 dollars.
  6. The only solution is default, either now or later, either by refusing to pay the debt and/or by inflating the dollar so its value decreases to nearly nothing, and hence the debt is rolled-over and paid with “Zimbabwe” dollars.
  7. Politicians no longer speak about “growing our way out.” They know that growth of that magnitude can not happen.
  8. “The Powers That Be” want to retain power and wealth as long as possible, so they will do whatever they can to keep the debt and currency bubbles inflated.
  9. Potential policy changes to lengthen the time BEFORE inevitable default:
  10. Higher taxes
    • Additional less visible taxes
    • Accelerating devaluation of the dollar and more consumer price inflation
    • Asset confiscations
    • Nationalization of pension funds
    • Required investment in T-Bonds

 

The End Game

  1. The US dollar will eventually purchase much less than it currently does. The devaluation process that has reduced its purchasing power since 1913, every year on average, will continue.
  2. The local currency devaluation process is clearly evident in Japan and will become increasingly evident in Europe and the US.
  3. All unbacked currencies will be devalued and some will collapse before others.
  4. Expect more discussion about gold backed Rubles, Yuan, SDR (IMF Special Drawing Rights) and others. Expect central banker resistance.
  5. Prices for gold, silver, land, diamonds, art, and other real assets will increase substantially in dollar terms as the currency and bond bubbles eventually implode.
  6. Social unrest! The people will be angered by currency collapses and the apparent theft of their savings and pensions. What happens when EBT cards purchase half of what they did in the previous year? The Powers That Be will respond to the social unrest.

Avoid the “poison” of DDT – Debt, Default, and Taxes.

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Exclusive: House GOP Leaders Trick 216 House Republicans into Accidentally Supporting Obama’s Executive Amnesty

(H/T Breitbart)

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In a lengthy interview on Friday afternoon, Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) exposed how House Speaker John Boehner, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Majority Whip Steve Scalise strengthened President Barack Obama’s executive amnesty with procedural trickery former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber would envy—and they did it all in the name of pushing a bill that they told Republicans would block Obama’s executive amnesty.

What’s more is that a series of interviews and recent developments indicate that Boehner’s gambit here is placing several of his top lieutenants—including at least two committee chairmen—at political risk of serious primary challenges just a few months after newly elected Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA) beat now former House Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) in a Republican primary.

Gohmert said most members had no idea what they were actually voting for when 219 members—216 of which were Republicans—approved a measure, H.R. 5759, first put forward by Rep. Ted Yoho (R-FL), but subsequently dramatically altered by leadership officials in the Rules Committee process.

“I was a cosponsor of the original Yoho bill. I thought it was a very decent bill, it was very short—it was only about a page and a half—and it basically said that anything the president did in violation of current law including what he’s done with ordering work permits for people who are illegally here, it’s illegal,” Gohmert said.

It’s outside the constitutional bounds. If you came through the Speaker’s lobby on the way to the House floor as so many people do, there’s tables there in the Speaker’s lobby that have copies of all the official bills we are taking up that day. There was official copies of H.R. 5759 out there—and they were the short page and a half bill that Representative Yoho had originally filed. But the night before there was an amendment in the nature of a substitute to H.R. 5759—what that means is that it’s a new bill. It’s different but it’s going to substitute in its entirety the original bill. It had some of Yoho’s original language in it but they eliminated from the title the word “amnesty” and replaced it with “executive overreach.” Then they had a bunch of ‘findings’ that sounded tough that make it clear the president is not authorized to do what he did. Section One is the short title of the bill. Section Two is the findings that got added, which sounded tough. Section Three is the operative section though.

Gohmert walked Breitbart News through the text of Section Three of the new bill line by line, explaining how each word fits into the legal patchwork of immigration law before getting to the key additions that were made without notifying many of the members who voted for it.

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Sean Hannity Left Visibly Stunned by Congresswoman’s Answer to His Question About Evidence in Michael Brown Shooting

(H/T TheBlaze)

Fox News host Sean Hannity was left perplexed on Thursday night when Rep. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.) proclaimed she has no interest in reviewing evidence released concerning the officer-involved killing of 18-year-old Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri.

“Did you read the evidence that was released in this case? Hannity asked.

“I did not, and that is not a concern,” Holmes replied.

“The evidence isn’t a concern? What?!” the visibly stunned host shot back.

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Norton went on to claim that the Brown shooting and the officer-involved killing of Eric Garner in New York City has revealed a “much larger concern.”

“These are words that you are saying. You have a position of power,” Hannity pressed, asking Norton why she won’t read the evidence in the Brown case.

“I’m sorry, if you want to talk about something that other people said, you can. This is my view,” Norton replied. “We are losing the big picture.”

The congresswoman said the recent police killings should be used as an opportunity to “discuss how police and African-Americans” can improve relations.

Hannity later read some of the evidence that was released after a Ferguson grand jury decided not to indict officer Darren Wilson in Brown’s death. He criticized Democratic lawmakers for pushing the “hands up, don’t shoot” narrative, even though some witnesses — including black witnesses — discredited the claim.

Norton then started to lose her cool.

“There was conflicting testimony!” she yelled. “Some people are going off of the testimony you said, some people are going over the other testimony. That’s not my concern.”

“No? The truth isn’t not your concern? Evidence isn’t your concern?” Hannity pressed. “Evidence isn’t a concern if you are going to take a position on a case?”

“If you want to talk to people who have other concerns, have them on your show!” Norton shouted, later clarifying that she is not a lawyer.

Things remained tense even as Hannity ended the interview as he told the congresswoman, “I hope you’ll take the time to read evidence in the case before you talk about a case. I think it will be helpful.”

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